College Football
Book Conviction TotalsWhat Book Conviction measures — feeds, filters and scoring
A book that holds most of the money on one side should move its number toward that side. When it does the opposite — shading the price to make the popular side cheaper while already carrying that exposure — it is telling you its own number disagrees with its customers. That is what Book Conviction measures: how hard a book is leaning against its own money, priced in the margins that actually decide games.
- Action Network — consensus % of money and % of tickets, plus a timestamped history of both the number and the price, at seven books individually rather than only the consensus.
- DraftKings — DraftKings' own handle % and bet %, independent of the consensus above, which is what makes agreement between them worth anything.
- Pinnacle — the sharp reference price. It takes sharp action and moves on it instead of shading to balance a public book's exposure, so it answers a different question: not where the money is, but where the number should be.
Official picks — 2.5+
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at North Carolina State Wolfpack
OVER holds 60% of the money (Action Network) and 82% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 2 pts the other way. The book is pricing Over 56.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. 5 books moved it within half an hour of each other, 24.7h ago — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting.
Miami (OH) RedHawks at UMass Minutemen
OVER holds 71% of the money (Action Network) and 77% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing Over 44.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. 5 books moved it within half an hour of each other, 4.5h ago — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida Gators
OVER holds 74% of the money (Action Network) and 85% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 2 pts the other way. The book is pricing Over 58.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. 4 books moved it within half an hour of each other, 58.2h ago — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting.
UCLA Bruins at Oregon Ducks
OVER holds 63% of the money (Action Network) and 92% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing Over 58.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. 4 books moved it within half an hour of each other, 23.7h ago — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting.
LSU Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats
OVER holds 64% of the money (Action Network) and 85% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing Over 50.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. 4 books moved it within half an hour of each other, 31.2h ago — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting.
Sacramento State Hornets at Bowling Green Falcons
OVER holds 76% of the money (Action Network) and 94% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing Over 43.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. 3 books moved it within half an hour of each other, 61h ago — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State Spartans
UNDER holds 52% of the money (Action Network) and 95% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing Under 48.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money.
Virginia Tech Hokies at California Golden Bears
OVER holds 78% of the money (Action Network) and 99% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing Over 52.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money.
Also flagged — below 2.5
Real signals that did not reach the official line. Listed and graded, but they do not count towards the headline record.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Marshall Thundering Herd
The number never moved. The price did — about 0.66 of a point cheaper on the side already holding the money, which is the same statement made quietly.
OVER holds 58% of the money (Action Network) and 88% at DraftKings, yet the book is shading the price against it. The book is pricing Over 58.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money.
Results — totals
| Matchup | Market | Pick | CLV | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAC @ BGSU | total | UNDER 43.5 | +0 | 10-38 | loss |
| WF @ NCST | total | UNDER 56.5 | +1 | 38-14 | win |
| SC @ FLA | total | UNDER 58.5 | +0 | 38-19 | win |
| M-OH @ MASS | total | UNDER 44.5 | +0 | 20-19 | win |
| ILL @ MSU | total | OVER 48.5 | +0 | 38-37 | win |
| UCLA @ ORE | total | UNDER 58.5 | +0 | 17-15 | win |
| VT @ CAL | total | UNDER 52.5 | +0 | 20-25 | win |
| CC @ MRSH | total | UNDER 58.5 | +0 | 27-21 | win |
| LSU @ UK | total | UNDER 50.5 | +0 | 34-35 | loss |
Graded against the number frozen before kickoff, not a later one. This slate: 7W - 2L (78%) · 1 of 9 beat the close, averaging +0.11 points.
By conviction
| Band | Conviction | Picks | Record | Beat the close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official | 2.5 + | 32 | 14W - 18L (44%) | 6/32 (+0.16) |
| Watch | 2.0 – 2.5 | 0 | — | — |
| Noted | under 2.0 | 1 | 1W - 0L (100%) | 0/1 (+0) |
2 earlier picks predate the score and sit in no band. They were not weak, they were unscored — and they are most of the graded history so far, which is why the bands below are still mostly empty.
Official picks are 2.5 and above. Everything else is still listed and still graded — closing line value is readable within hours, so if conviction means anything the higher bands should beat the close more often, and that is the test. Win/loss at this volume would take seasons to say the same thing.
Full board — totals
| Matchup | ET | Bets | Open | Now | Money on | AN $% | AN T% | DK $% | DK T% | 7d | 3d | 1d | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UGA @ BAMA | 7:30 | 89,003 | 50 | 51.5 | OVER | 73 | 61 | 60 | 69 | -5 | 0 | 0 | FINAL |
| IU @ NEB | 12:00 | 65,814 | 48.5 | 48.5 | OVER | 79 | 80 | 94 | 79 | -1 | 0 | +1 | FINAL |
| TEX @ OU | 3:30 | 65,663 | 48.5 | 40.5 | UNDER | 57 | 50 | — | — | -4.5 | +1 | +1 | FINAL |
| USC @ PSU | 7:30 | 56,661 | 56.5 | 54.5 | OVER | 62 | 58 | 63 | 75 | -4 | 0 | 0 | FINAL |
| UCLA @ ORE | 3:30 | 50,083 | 58.5 | 58.5 | OVER | 63 | 65 | 92 | 93 | -2 | 0 | -1 | 6.5 FINAL |
| TA&M @ MIZ | 12:00 | 49,366 | 50.5 | 50.5 | OVER | 73 | 66 | 89 | 84 | 0 | +2 | +2 | FINAL |
| LSU @ UK | 7:00 | 43,555 | 49.5 | 50.5 | OVER | 64 | 73 | 85 | 80 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5.1 FINAL |
| SC @ FLA | 12:45 | 42,868 | 57.5 | 58.5 | OVER | 74 | 66 | 85 | 79 | +1 | -2 | 0 | 6.6 FINAL |
| UNC @ PITT | 12:00 | 40,803 | 49.5 | 47.5 | OVER | 67 | 63 | 89 | 75 | -2 | 0 | +1 | FINAL |
| MISS @ VAN | 3:30 | 40,172 | 57.5 | 54.5 | OVER | 63 | 72 | 30 | 71 | -3 | -3 | 0 | FINAL |
| ARI @ WVU | 12:00 | 35,038 | 57.5 | 61.5 | OVER | 78 | 66 | 92 | 75 | +4 | 0 | +1 | FINAL |
| DUKE @ GT | 3:30 | 27,747 | 50.5 | 45.5 | OVER | 80 | 55 | 33 | 66 | -5 | 0 | +2 | FINAL |
| HOU @ KSU | 3:30 | 27,424 | 51.5 | 55.5 | UNDER | 71 | 68 | 35 | 31 | +4 | 0 | 0 | FINAL |
| TENN @ ARK | 4:15 | 26,642 | 54.5 | 51.5 | UNDER | 52 | 54 | 56 | 28 | -3 | 0 | 0 | FINAL |
| UCF @ OKST | 12:00 | 25,955 | 51.5 | 53.5 | UNDER | 55 | 59 | 4 | 12 | +2 | 0 | 0 | FINAL |
| NDSU @ UNLV | 7:00 | 22,138 | 50.5 | 47.5 | OVER | 80 | 85 | 16 | 77 | -3 | 0 | 0 | FINAL |
| WF @ NCST | 12:00 | 21,386 | 58.5 | 56.5 | OVER | 60 | 59 | 82 | 78 | -2 | -3 | -2 | 8.1 FINAL |
| JMU @ GASO | 7:30 | 19,412 | 53.5 | 51.5 | UNDER | 52 | 45 | 30 | 20 | -2 | 0 | 0 | FINAL |
| SDSU @ ORST | 6:00 | 16,978 | 51.5 | 52.5 | UNDER | 51 | 59 | 16 | 16 | +1 | -1 | -1 | FINAL |
| AFA @ NIU | 7:30 | 16,776 | 47.5 | 48.5 | OVER | 75 | 78 | 19 | 51 | +1 | +2 | +2 | FINAL |
| UAB @ MEM | 7:00 | 16,595 | 59.5 | 54.5 | OVER | 58 | 58 | 36 | 60 | -5 | +2 | +1 | FINAL |
| UMD @ OSU | 4:15 | 15,868 | 54.5 | 56.5 | OVER | 88 | 81 | 95 | 89 | +2 | 0 | 0 | FINAL |
| VT @ CAL | 3:30 | 14,863 | 49.5 | 52.5 | OVER | 78 | 70 | 99 | 92 | +3 | -1 | -1 | 2.6 FINAL |
| ILL @ MSU | 3:30 | 12,581 | 51.5 | 48.5 | UNDER | 52 | 47 | 95 | 38 | -3 | +1 | +1 | 2.8 FINAL |
| ODU @ APP | 1:00 | 12,520 | 51.5 | 45.5 | UNDER | 53 | 33 | 62 | 27 | -6 | -5 | -2 | FINAL |
| UL @ LT | 7:30 | 12,253 | 50.5 | 48.5 | OVER | 81 | 82 | — | — | -2 | +1 | +1 | FINAL |
| TULN @ ARMY | 12:00 | 12,207 | 44.5 | 48.5 | OVER | 53 | 46 | 60 | 53 | +4 | 0 | 0 | FINAL |
| SYR @ UVA | 7:30 | 11,980 | 50.5 | 49.5 | UNDER | 63 | 38 | 29 | 12 | -1 | -1 | -1 | FINAL |
| M-OH @ MASS | 2:00 | 11,672 | 49.5 | 44.5 | OVER | 71 | 80 | 77 | 84 | -5 | -3 | -1 | 7.3 FINAL |
| STAN @ ND | 3:30 | 11,435 | 55.5 | 55.5 | UNDER | 56 | 59 | 22 | 18 | 0 | +1 | +1 | FINAL |
| TLSA @ NAVY | 3:30 | 10,799 | 53.5 | 47.5 | OVER | 81 | 82 | 32 | 44 | -6 | -1 | -1 | FINAL |
| BALL @ NW | 12:30 | 9,471 | 51.5 | 52.5 | OVER | 71 | 66 | 91 | 86 | +1 | 0 | 0 | FINAL |
| RICE @ ECU | 1:00 | 9,390 | 50.5 | 46.5 | OVER | 76 | 81 | 44 | 85 | -4 | -1 | -1 | unconfirmed FINAL |
| SAC @ BGSU | 12:00 | 8,552 | 46.5 | 43.5 | OVER | 76 | 83 | 94 | 91 | -3 | -1 | 0 | 3.5 FINAL |
| CC @ MRSH | 7:00 | 8,532 | 55.5 | 58.5 | OVER | 58 | 33 | 88 | 49 | +3 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 FINAL |
Movement columns are the change in the total over each window. Teal = moved against the money (the signal); orange = moved with it. AN = Action Network consensus, DK = DraftKings. Percentages are for the side named in “Money on”.
How much to trust it
- Most days produce nothing, and that is the screen working. Thin markets are dropped before they are screened, both money feeds have to agree, and the line has to have moved against that money. A light board clears none of that: one recent Friday had four games and produced no pick at all. A screen that always finds something is not a screen.
- The edge is modest. The underlying move — reverse line movement — is a real but heavily degraded signal — books price it in now. This screen finds where a market is behaving oddly; it does not establish that the odd behaviour is wrong.
- Splits are a snapshot, not a history. Percentages are read at generation time and will drift before kickoff.
- Ticket shape can conflict. Where one feed shows money concentrated in few tickets and the other shows it spread across many, the sharp reading is weaker. The per-game cards show both so the disagreement stays visible.
- Totals move spreads. A falling total mechanically compresses a spread, so part of a spread move can be a total move wearing a disguise.
- Check the news. A line moving against the money is often just an injury the percentages have not caught up with yet.