College Football

Book Conviction Totals

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Saturday, October 3, 2026 · generated 8:00 AM ET · Download PDF

This Slate · 2.5+

0W - 3L (0%)

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Saturday, October 3, 2026

37 games screened

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Official Picks · 2.5+

8W - 15L (35%)

Beat the Close

4/23 (+0.13 pts)

Games screened

Official picks

Still open

Locked at kickoff

What Book Conviction measures — feeds, filters and scoring

A book that holds most of the money on one side should move its number toward that side. When it does the opposite — shading the price to make the popular side cheaper while already carrying that exposure — it is telling you its own number disagrees with its customers. That is what Book Conviction measures: how hard a book is leaning against its own money, priced in the margins that actually decide games.

Method. Three free feeds, none of them paid for and none of them interchangeable:

Action Network — consensus % of money and % of tickets, plus a timestamped history of both the number and the price, at seven books individually rather than only the consensus.
DraftKings — DraftKings' own handle % and bet %, independent of the consensus above, which is what makes agreement between them worth anything.
Pinnacle — the sharp reference price. It takes sharp action and moves on it instead of shading to balance a public book's exposure, so it answers a different question: not where the money is, but where the number should be.

What gets flagged. A game needs at least 8,000 tracked bets — on thin markets the two splits feeds disagree by a median of roughly 30 points of money share, so their percentages there cannot be trusted — and both feeds must agree on which side holds the money, with at least 60% of the money on it. At 51/49 a book holds no meaningful exposure either way: it is balanced and collecting vig from both sides, so moving the number “against the money” there is not a statement, it is noise. Then either the number moved against that money in the last 3 days, or the price did by at least half a point's worth: a book shades the vig before it moves the line, and a spread sitting still at −3 while the price runs −110 to −125 has moved. What scores it. The move is weighted by the key numbers it touched, because giving up 3 is not the same as drifting through 10. It is then scaled by how lopsided the money is, how much of it there is, whether the play is getting a better number than Pinnacle, and whether several books moved together within half an hour — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting. That produces the 0–10 Conviction score. 2.5 and above is an official pick; everything below is listed and graded but kept out of the headline record.

Official picks — 2.5+

Oregon State Beavers at Colorado State Rams

Total · kickoff 6:00 PM ET · 16,317 bets tracked

Final · locked

UNDER 61.5

OVER holds 60% of the money (Action Network) and 94% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing Over 61.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. 5 books moved it within half an hour of each other, 24m ago — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting.

Open → now

56.5 → 61.5

Money %

60 / 94

Ticket %

34 / 70

Move 3d / 1d

0 / -1

Price 3d / 1d

+2.27 / +0 pp

Sources agree

Yes

Pinnacle

61 (+0.5)

Steam

5 books · 24m ago

Sep 29 · 62.5Sep 30 · 61.5Oct 1 · 62.5Oct 1 · 61.5Oct 1 · 62.5Oct 3 · 61.5

Kicked off — frozen at the last pre-kickoff reading, 2026-10-03 22:00 UTC. This is the record of the pick.

Bowling Green Falcons at Miami (OH) RedHawks

Total · kickoff 3:30 PM ET · 8,693 bets tracked

Final · locked

UNDER 42.5

OVER holds 77% of the money (Action Network) and 98% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing Over 42.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. 4 books moved it within half an hour of each other, 4h ago — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting.

Open → now

50.5 → 42.5

Money %

77 / 98

Ticket %

80 / 83

Move 3d / 1d

-1 / 0

Sources agree

Yes

Pinnacle

41.5 (+1)

Steam

4 books · 4h ago

Sep 29 · 43.5Sep 29 · 42.5Sep 30 · 43.5Sep 30 · 42.5Sep 30 · 43.5Oct 1 · 42.5

Kicked off — frozen at the last pre-kickoff reading, 2026-10-03 19:00 UTC. This is the record of the pick.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar Heels

Total · kickoff 12:00 PM ET · 30,721 bets tracked

Final · locked

UNDER 46.5

OVER holds 82% of the money (Action Network) and 62% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing Over 46.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money.

Open → now

55.5 → 46.5

Money %

82 / 62

Ticket %

83 / 82

Move 3d / 1d

-1 / 0

Sources agree

Yes

Pinnacle

46.5 (+0)

Sep 23 · 49.5Sep 26 · 50.5Sep 27 · 49.5Sep 27 · 48.5Sep 27 · 47.5Oct 1 · 46.5

Kicked off — frozen at the last pre-kickoff reading, 2026-10-03 16:00 UTC. This is the record of the pick.

Results — totals

Matchup	Market	Pick	CLV	Final	Result
ND @ UNC	total	UNDER 46.5	+0	37-26	loss
BGSU @ M-OH	total	UNDER 42.5	+0	24-20	loss
ORST @ CSU	total	UNDER 61.5	+1	56-26	loss

Graded against the number frozen before kickoff, not a later one. This slate: 0W - 3L (0%) · 1 of 3 beat the close, averaging +0.33 points.

By conviction

Band	Conviction	Picks	Record	Beat the close
Official	2.5 +	23	8W - 15L (35%)	4/23 (+0.13)
Watch	2.0 – 2.5	0	—	—
Noted	under 2.0	0	—	—

2 earlier picks predate the score and sit in no band. They were not weak, they were unscored — and they are most of the graded history so far, which is why the bands below are still mostly empty.

Official picks are 2.5 and above. Everything else is still listed and still graded — closing line value is readable within hours, so if conviction means anything the higher bands should beat the close more often, and that is the test. Win/loss at this volume would take seasons to say the same thing.

CLV is closing line value: how far the number moved after the play fired, in points, from the side taken. Positive means the market came to the play and a reader acting on it got a better number than the market settled on. It is the more honest measure of this screen — win/loss on a handful of games says nothing either way, while consistently beating the close is what an edge actually looks like. Picks recorded before this was tracked show “—”.

Full board — totals

Matchup	ET	Bets	Open	Now	Money on	AN $%	AN T%	DK $%	DK T%	7d	3d	1d
BAMA @ MSST	12:00	84,601	58.5	62.5	OVER	79	47	93	83	+4	+2	+2	FINAL
OSU @ IOWA	3:30	73,085	44.5	45.5	OVER	85	84	56	77	+1	0	0	FINAL
FLA @ MIZ	3:30	71,828	53.5	57.5	OVER	77	23	98	90	+3	+1	0	FINAL
UK @ SC	4:15	46,190	49.5	54.5	UNDER	81	82	1	9	+5	+1	0	FINAL
MIA @ CLEM	7:30	45,645	55.5	48.5	OVER	63	71	67	82	-2.5	+1	+1	FINAL
WASH @ USC	7:30	45,640	57.5	58.5	UNDER	63	67	43	23	+1	0	0	FINAL
BYU @ TCU	7:00	39,597	52.5	47.5	OVER	66	67	38	83	-5	0	0	FINAL
VAN @ UGA	12:45	38,632	57.5	50.5	UNDER	51	49	31	10	-7	-1	0	FINAL
AUB @ TENN	3:30	37,835	57.5	54.5	UNDER	80	78	28	22	-3	0	0	FINAL
MICH @ MINN	12:00	34,068	44.5	43.5	OVER	58	78	21	59	0	0	0	FINAL
TTU @ COLO	7:30	33,119	52.5	50.5	OVER	71	69	83	90	-2	0	0	FINAL
ND @ UNC	12:00	30,721	55.5	46.5	OVER	82	83	62	82	-3	-1	0	3.6 FINAL
UCF @ HOU	12:00	24,779	50.5	51.5	UNDER	57	58	10	18	+1	0	0	FINAL
WVU @ ISU	12:00	22,572	52.5	53.5	UNDER	62	65	41	30	+1	+1	0	FINAL
ARK @ TA&M	7:00	22,471	51.5	50.5	OVER	74	77	31	74	-1	0	0	FINAL
LOU @ NCST	3:30	22,178	59.5	58.5	UNDER	81	83	14	22	-1	0	0	FINAL
PUR @ ILL	4:15	19,664	58.5	62.5	OVER	59	35	—	—	+4	+1	0	FINAL
MSU @ WIS	12:30	19,543	44.5	43.5	OVER	72	76	62	68	-1	0	0	FINAL
TEM @ USF	7:30	19,543	53.5	50.5	OVER	72	84	35	76	-3	+2	+2	FINAL
ARMY @ LT	7:30	19,270	44.5	47.5	OVER	73	75	72	78	+3	0	0	FINAL
UMD @ NEB	4:00	19,225	53.5	52.5	UNDER	78	78	18	50	-1	0	0	FINAL
UVA @ FSU	3:30	18,554	51.5	51.5	UNDER	65	66	14	10	0	0	0	FINAL
NAVY @ AFA	12:00	18,099	50.5	45.5	UNDER	52	25	67	62	-5	-1	0	FINAL
BC @ SMU	12:00	17,927	57.5	55.5	UNDER	71	71	35	27	-2	0	0	FINAL
ORST @ CSU	6:00	16,317	56.5	61.5	OVER	60	34	94	70	+5	0	-1	5.5 FINAL
CAL @ UNLV	3:30	16,261	54.5	53.5	UNDER	87	88	94	29	-1	0	0	FINAL
EMU @ MASS	3:30	16,241	48.5	48.5	UNDER	52	41	38	22	0	0	0	FINAL
STAN @ WF	12:00	14,459	51.5	53.5	UNDER	62	65	9	24	+2	0	0	FINAL
SYR @ UCONN	12:00	13,111	52.5	50.5	UNDER	51	52	7	35	-2	0	0	FINAL
MRSH @ JMU	3:45	12,697	56.5	56.5	UNDER	72	78	14	17	0	+1	0	FINAL
USU @ BOISE	7:30	12,409	52.5	51.5	OVER	64	66	37	71	-1	0	0	FINAL
ODU @ GAST	3:30	10,395	51.5	51.5	UNDER	79	79	1	16	0	0	0	FINAL
WMU @ BUFF	1:00	10,082	51.5	46.5	OVER	69	76	96	74	-5	0	0	FINAL
UTSA @ RICE	7:00	9,198	52.5	55.5	UNDER	51	62	8	19	+3	0	0	FINAL
AKR @ CMU	3:30	8,830	46.5	47.5	OVER	55	63	21	71	+1	0	0	FINAL
BGSU @ M-OH	3:30	8,693	50.5	42.5	OVER	77	80	98	83	-8	-1	0	3.8 FINAL
MEM @ CHA	11:00	8,093	54.5	52.5	UNDER	63	64	22	30	-2	-1	0	FINAL

Movement columns are the change in the total over each window. Teal = moved against the money (the signal); orange = moved with it. AN = Action Network consensus, DK = DraftKings. Percentages are for the side named in “Money on”.

How much to trust it

Most days produce nothing, and that is the screen working. Thin markets are dropped before they are screened, both money feeds have to agree, and the line has to have moved against that money. A light board clears none of that: one recent Friday had four games and produced no pick at all. A screen that always finds something is not a screen.
The edge is modest. The underlying move — reverse line movement — is a real but heavily degraded signal — books price it in now. This screen finds where a market is behaving oddly; it does not establish that the odd behaviour is wrong.
Splits are a snapshot, not a history. Percentages are read at generation time and will drift before kickoff.
Ticket shape can conflict. Where one feed shows money concentrated in few tickets and the other shows it spread across many, the sharp reading is weaker. The per-game cards show both so the disagreement stays visible.
Totals move spreads. A falling total mechanically compresses a spread, so part of a spread move can be a total move wearing a disguise.
Check the news. A line moving against the money is often just an injury the percentages have not caught up with yet.