College Football
Book Conviction TotalsWhat Book Conviction measures — feeds, filters and scoring
A book that holds most of the money on one side should move its number toward that side. When it does the opposite — shading the price to make the popular side cheaper while already carrying that exposure — it is telling you its own number disagrees with its customers. That is what Book Conviction measures: how hard a book is leaning against its own money, priced in the margins that actually decide games.
- Action Network — consensus % of money and % of tickets, plus a timestamped history of both the number and the price, at seven books individually rather than only the consensus.
- DraftKings — DraftKings' own handle % and bet %, independent of the consensus above, which is what makes agreement between them worth anything.
- Pinnacle — the sharp reference price. It takes sharp action and moves on it instead of shading to balance a public book's exposure, so it answers a different question: not where the money is, but where the number should be.
Official picks — 2.5+
Oregon Ducks at USC Trojans
OVER holds 79% of the money (Action Network) and 68% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing Over 60.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. 5 books moved it within half an hour of each other, 48.6h ago — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting.
Central Michigan Chippewas at Miami (FL) Hurricanes
OVER holds 76% of the money (Action Network) and 99% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 2 pts the other way. The book is pricing Over 52.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. 5 books moved it within half an hour of each other, 3.1h ago — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Auburn Tigers
OVER holds 53% of the money (Action Network) and 87% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing Over 54.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. 4 books moved it within half an hour of each other, 3.5h ago — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting.
San Diego State Aztecs at Toledo Rockets
OVER holds 56% of the money (Action Network) and 68% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing Over 50.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. 5 books moved it within half an hour of each other, 2.4h ago — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting.
South Florida Bulls at Bowling Green Falcons
OVER holds 82% of the money (Action Network) and 100% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing Over 48.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Alabama Crimson Tide
OVER holds 52% of the money (Action Network) and 73% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing Over 53.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money.
Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers
OVER holds 85% of the money (Action Network) and 87% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing Over 52.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money.
Results — totals
| Matchup | Market | Pick | CLV | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDSU @ TOL | total | UNDER 50.5 | +0 | 16-41 | loss |
| VAN @ AUB | total | UNDER 54.5 | +0 | 15-21 | win |
| USF @ BGSU | total | UNDER 48.5 | +0 | 14-6 | win |
| CMU @ MIA | total | UNDER 52.5 | +1 | 3-52 | loss |
| SC @ BAMA | total | UNDER 53.5 | +0 | 18-49 | loss |
| ORE @ USC | total | UNDER 60.5 | +1 | 41-27 | loss |
| TA&M @ LSU | total | UNDER 52.5 | -1 | 6-35 | win |
Graded against the number frozen before kickoff, not a later one. This slate: 3W - 4L (43%) · 2 of 7 beat the close, averaging +0.14 points.
By conviction
| Band | Conviction | Picks | Record | Beat the close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official | 2.5 + | 20 | 8W - 12L (40%) | 3/20 (+0.1) |
| Watch | 2.0 – 2.5 | 0 | — | — |
| Noted | under 2.0 | 0 | — | — |
2 earlier picks predate the score and sit in no band. They were not weak, they were unscored — and they are most of the graded history so far, which is why the bands below are still mostly empty.
Official picks are 2.5 and above. Everything else is still listed and still graded — closing line value is readable within hours, so if conviction means anything the higher bands should beat the close more often, and that is the test. Win/loss at this volume would take seasons to say the same thing.
Full board — totals
| Matchup | ET | Bets | Open | Now | Money on | AN $% | AN T% | DK $% | DK T% | 7d | 3d | 1d | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MISS @ FLA | 3:30 | 96,198 | 57.5 | 58.5 | UNDER | 62 | 72 | 5 | 14 | +0.5 | 0 | 0 | FINAL |
| TEX @ TENN | 12:00 | 84,969 | 56.5 | 54.5 | UNDER | 66 | 69 | 20 | 28 | -2 | -1 | 0 | FINAL |
| ORE @ USC | 7:30 | 71,550 | 58.5 | 60.5 | OVER | 79 | 53 | 68 | 89 | -1 | -2 | -1 | 7.4 FINAL |
| OU @ UGA | 3:30 | 63,588 | 52.5 | 43.5 | OVER | 86 | 86 | 48 | 70 | -3.5 | -1 | -1 | unconfirmed FINAL |
| IOWA @ MICH | 3:30 | 62,730 | 39.5 | 40.5 | OVER | 74 | 79 | 21 | 32 | +3.5 | +2 | +2 | FINAL |
| TA&M @ LSU | 7:30 | 51,996 | 56.5 | 52.5 | OVER | 85 | 78 | 87 | 87 | -2 | +1 | +1 | 2.5 FINAL |
| WIS @ PSU | 5:00 | 42,772 | 42.5 | 43.5 | OVER | 80 | 86 | 41 | 85 | 0 | -1 | 0 | unconfirmed FINAL |
| WF @ LOU | 12:00 | 40,223 | 58.5 | 57.5 | UNDER | 53 | 71 | 1 | 18 | -1 | -1 | 0 | FINAL |
| MIZ @ MSST | 7:45 | 40,192 | 56.5 | 58.5 | OVER | 56 | 46 | 88 | 83 | +2 | 0 | 0 | FINAL |
| VAN @ AUB | 4:15 | 36,749 | 50.5 | 54.5 | OVER | 53 | 48 | 87 | 79 | +4 | 0 | -1 | 5.0 FINAL |
| SC @ BAMA | 7:00 | 36,355 | 46.5 | 53.5 | OVER | 52 | 50 | 73 | 91 | +4 | 0 | -1 | 2.5 FINAL |
| UTAH @ ISU | 3:30 | 35,083 | 49.5 | 47.5 | OVER | 71 | 76 | 18 | 75 | -2 | -1 | 0 | FINAL |
| VT @ BC | 12:00 | 31,478 | 53.5 | 45.5 | OVER | 69 | 76 | 24 | 47 | -8 | -3 | -2 | FINAL |
| OKST @ WVU | 7:00 | 29,802 | 57.5 | 60.5 | UNDER | 60 | 65 | 2 | 12 | +3 | 0 | -1 | FINAL |
| UCLA @ UMD | 1:30 | 29,232 | 51.5 | 55.5 | UNDER | 69 | 67 | 11 | 29 | +4 | -1 | -1 | FINAL |
| ND @ PUR | 2:00 | 23,940 | 56.5 | 56.5 | UNDER | 55 | 58 | 21 | 29 | 0 | -2 | -2 | FINAL |
| ILL @ OSU | 12:00 | 23,678 | 52.5 | 53.5 | OVER | 70 | 71 | 17 | 88 | 0 | -1 | 0 | FINAL |
| BOISE @ WMU | 3:30 | 20,179 | 47.5 | 50.5 | OVER | 79 | 80 | 77 | 82 | +3 | +1 | +1 | FINAL |
| COLO @ BAY | 12:00 | 19,720 | 52.5 | 54.5 | OVER | 59 | 53 | 53 | 66 | +2 | -1 | -1 | FINAL |
| TROY @ USU | 7:30 | 17,327 | 54.5 | 47.5 | OVER | 69 | 73 | 48 | 37 | -7 | 0 | 0 | FINAL |
| JMU @ ODU | 6:00 | 16,544 | 51.5 | 44.5 | OVER | 58 | 63 | 38 | 88 | -7 | 0 | 0 | FINAL |
| SHSU @ TTU | 12:00 | 16,473 | 55.5 | 55.5 | OVER | 73 | 63 | 84 | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | FINAL |
| KSU @ CIN | 7:00 | 16,418 | 51.5 | 55.5 | UNDER | 60 | 58 | 9 | 22 | +4 | 0 | 0 | FINAL |
| HOU @ GASO | 4:00 | 15,751 | 54.5 | 56.5 | UNDER | 62 | 64 | 10 | 21 | +2 | 0 | 0 | FINAL |
| NEB @ MSU | 5:00 | 15,706 | 52.5 | 48.5 | OVER | 68 | 69 | 38 | 77 | -4 | 0 | 0 | FINAL |
| CMU @ MIA | 6:30 | 13,318 | 54.5 | 52.5 | OVER | 76 | 73 | 99 | 99 | -2 | -1 | -2 | 5.9 FINAL |
| USA @ UK | 12:45 | 11,935 | 54.5 | 54.5 | UNDER | 69 | 66 | 40 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | FINAL |
| SDSU @ TOL | 12:00 | 11,723 | 48.5 | 50.5 | OVER | 56 | 59 | 68 | 65 | +2 | -1 | -1 | 3.3 FINAL |
| USF @ BGSU | 5:00 | 10,940 | 53.5 | 48.5 | OVER | 82 | 82 | 100 | 100 | -5 | 0 | -1 | 2.7 FINAL |
| TCU @ UCF | 3:30 | 10,258 | 51.5 | 48.5 | OVER | 79 | 66 | 8 | 65 | -3 | 0 | 0 | FINAL |
| APP @ NCST | 7:30 | 9,289 | 54.5 | 55.5 | UNDER | 56 | 55 | 55 | 30 | +1 | 0 | 0 | FINAL |
| HAW @ WYO | 3:00 | 9,077 | 46.5 | 44.5 | OVER | 58 | 62 | 35 | 72 | -2 | 0 | +1 | FINAL |
| KENN @ ARST | 7:00 | 8,537 | 55.5 | 53.5 | OVER | 54 | 58 | 1 | 75 | -2 | +1 | +1 | FINAL |
| CSU @ UTSA | 12:00 | 8,451 | 56.5 | 56.5 | UNDER | 82 | 80 | 33 | 48 | 0 | -2 | 0 | FINAL |
| UCONN @ M-OH | 3:30 | 8,360 | 48.5 | 52.5 | OVER | 55 | 50 | 95 | 90 | +4 | +1 | +1 | FINAL |
Movement columns are the change in the total over each window. Teal = moved against the money (the signal); orange = moved with it. AN = Action Network consensus, DK = DraftKings. Percentages are for the side named in “Money on”.
How much to trust it
- Most days produce nothing, and that is the screen working. Thin markets are dropped before they are screened, both money feeds have to agree, and the line has to have moved against that money. A light board clears none of that: one recent Friday had four games and produced no pick at all. A screen that always finds something is not a screen.
- The edge is modest. The underlying move — reverse line movement — is a real but heavily degraded signal — books price it in now. This screen finds where a market is behaving oddly; it does not establish that the odd behaviour is wrong.
- Splits are a snapshot, not a history. Percentages are read at generation time and will drift before kickoff.
- Ticket shape can conflict. Where one feed shows money concentrated in few tickets and the other shows it spread across many, the sharp reading is weaker. The per-game cards show both so the disagreement stays visible.
- Totals move spreads. A falling total mechanically compresses a spread, so part of a spread move can be a total move wearing a disguise.
- Check the news. A line moving against the money is often just an injury the percentages have not caught up with yet.