College Football

Book Conviction Totals

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Saturday, September 12, 2026 · generated 9:12 AM ET · Download PDF

This Slate · 2.5+

1W - 1L (50%)

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Saturday, September 12, 2026

39 games screened

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Official Picks · 2.5+

1W - 1L (50%)

Beat the Close

0/2 (+0 pts)

Games screened

Official picks

Still open

Locked at kickoff

What Book Conviction measures — feeds, filters and scoring

A book that holds most of the money on one side should move its number toward that side. When it does the opposite — shading the price to make the popular side cheaper while already carrying that exposure — it is telling you its own number disagrees with its customers. That is what Book Conviction measures: how hard a book is leaning against its own money, priced in the margins that actually decide games.

Method. Three free feeds, none of them paid for and none of them interchangeable:

Action Network — consensus % of money and % of tickets, plus a timestamped history of both the number and the price, at seven books individually rather than only the consensus.
VSiN — DraftKings' own handle % and bet %, independent of the consensus above, which is what makes agreement between them worth anything.
Pinnacle — the sharp reference price. It takes sharp action and moves on it instead of shading to balance a public book's exposure, so it answers a different question: not where the money is, but where the number should be.

What gets flagged. A game needs at least 8,000 tracked bets — on thin markets the two splits feeds disagree by a median of roughly 30 points of money share, so their percentages there cannot be trusted — and both feeds must agree on which side holds the money, with at least 60% of the money on it. At 51/49 a book holds no meaningful exposure either way: it is balanced and collecting vig from both sides, so moving the number “against the money” there is not a statement, it is noise. Then either the number moved against that money in the last 3 days, or the price did by at least half a point's worth: a book shades the vig before it moves the line, and a spread sitting still at −3 while the price runs −110 to −125 has moved. What scores it. The move is weighted by the key numbers it touched, because giving up 3 is not the same as drifting through 10. It is then scaled by how lopsided the money is, how much of it there is, whether the play is getting a better number than Pinnacle, and whether several books moved together within half an hour — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting. That produces the 0–10 Conviction score. 2.5 and above is an official pick; everything below is listed and graded but kept out of the headline record.

Official picks — 2.5+

Rice Owls at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Total · kickoff 3:30 PM ET · 9,789 bets tracked

Final · locked

UNDER 54.5

OVER holds 57% of the money (Action Network) and 89% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing Over 54.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. 3 books moved it within half an hour of each other, 3.5h ago — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting.

Open → now

52.5 → 54.5

Money %

57 / 89

Ticket %

38 / 86

Move 3d / 1d

-1 / -1

Sources agree

Yes

Pinnacle

54.5 (+0)

Steam

3 books · 3.5h ago

Sep 6 · 54Sep 6 · 54.5Sep 8 · 55.5Sep 12 · 54.5Sep 12 · 55.5Sep 12 · 54.5

Kicked off — frozen at the last pre-kickoff reading, 2026-09-12 19:00 UTC. This is the record of the pick.

Georgia State Panthers at Kennesaw State Owls

Total · kickoff 7:00 PM ET · 10,602 bets tracked

Final · locked

OVER 55.5

UNDER holds 84% of the money (Action Network) and 81% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing Under 55.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. 4 books moved it within half an hour of each other, 6.5h ago — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting.

Open → now

50.5 → 55.5

Money %

84 / 81

Ticket %

85 / 24

Move 3d / 1d

+1 / +1

Sources agree

Yes

Pinnacle

55 (-0.5)

Steam

4 books · 6.5h ago

Sep 7 · 52Sep 7 · 51.5Sep 7 · 52.5Sep 7 · 53.5Sep 7 · 54.5Sep 12 · 55.5

Kicked off — frozen at the last pre-kickoff reading, 2026-09-12 23:00 UTC. This is the record of the pick.

Results — totals

Matchup	Market	Pick	CLV	Final	Result
RICE @ ND	total	UNDER 54.5	+0	0-52	win
GAST @ KENN	total	OVER 55.5	+0	31-17	loss

Graded against the number frozen before kickoff, not a later one. This slate: 1W - 1L (50%) · 0 of 2 beat the close, averaging +0 points.

By conviction

Band	Conviction	Picks	Record	Beat the close
Official	2.5 +	2	1W - 1L (50%)	0/2 (+0)
Watch	2.0 – 2.5	0	—	—
Noted	under 2.0	0	—	—

2 earlier picks predate the score and sit in no band. They were not weak, they were unscored — and they are most of the graded history so far, which is why the bands below are still mostly empty.

Official picks are 2.5 and above. Everything else is still listed and still graded — closing line value is readable within hours, so if conviction means anything the higher bands should beat the close more often, and that is the test. Win/loss at this volume would take seasons to say the same thing.

CLV is closing line value: how far the number moved after the play fired, in points, from the side taken. Positive means the market came to the play and a reader acting on it got a better number than the market settled on. It is the more honest measure of this screen — win/loss on a handful of games says nothing either way, while consistently beating the close is what an edge actually looks like. Picks recorded before this was tracked show “—”.

Full board — totals

Matchup	ET	Bets	Open	Now	Money on	AN $%	AN T%	DK $%	DK T%	7d	3d	1d
OSU @ TEX	7:30	92,860	47.5	50.5	OVER	77	64	79	74	+3	+2	+1	FINAL
OU @ MICH	12:00	86,438	45.5	43.5	UNDER	66	60	53	38	-2	0	0	FINAL
BAMA @ UK	3:30	60,796	49.5	47.5	UNDER	51	70	35	12	-1.5	-2	-1	FINAL
TENN @ GT	7:00	40,419	54.5	55.5	OVER	79	77	43	74	0	0	0	FINAL
ORE @ OKST	12:00	36,840	58.5	54.5	UNDER	78	60	5	10	-6	-3	-1	FINAL
MSST @ MINN	3:30	36,032	51.5	54.5	UNDER	53	43	66	33	+2	-1	0	FINAL
ARI @ BYU	3:30	35,149	53.5	48.5	OVER	57	65	62	87	-4	+1	0	FINAL
ASU @ TA&M	12:00	32,761	51.5	51.5	OVER	62	48	82	87	-0.5	+1	+1	FINAL
ISU @ IOWA	7:30	30,903	41.5	42.5	UNDER	68	60	48	48	+0.5	+2	+1	FINAL
MEM @ BOISE	6:00	28,358	54.5	54.5	UNDER	70	81	6	16	+1	0	-2	FINAL
WF @ PUR	12:00	27,343	50.5	51.5	UNDER	69	75	2	30	+1.5	+2	+2	unconfirmed FINAL
PSU @ TEM	12:00	23,779	49.5	49.5	UNDER	51	58	24	16	-1	0	-1	FINAL
CAL @ SYR	3:30	23,441	53.5	56.5	UNDER	57	61	5	18	+3.5	0	0	FINAL
DUKE @ ILL	3:30	19,861	54.5	51.5	UNDER	66	62	78	49	-4	0	0	FINAL
WKU @ UGA	12:45	19,503	52.5	55.5	UNDER	52	69	5	10	+3	0	0	FINAL
USF @ ARMY	12:00	19,472	54.5	45.5	OVER	53	56	—	—	-8	-1	-1	unconfirmed FINAL
ODU @ VT	12:00	19,159	52.5	47.5	UNDER	68	61	46	15	-4.5	-2	-1	FINAL
SDSU @ UCLA	7:15	18,821	49.5	53.5	UNDER	64	88	41	26	+4.5	-2	-1	FINAL
LT @ LSU	7:30	17,751	55.5	55.5	OVER	64	35	87	93	0	0	0	FINAL
UNLV @ UNT	3:45	17,231	60.5	57.5	UNDER	68	88	18	32	-2.5	+1	-1	FINAL
TTU @ ORST	7:30	16,701	51.5	52.5	UNDER	81	92	47	10	+2	-1	-1	FINAL
NAVY @ FAU	7:30	16,135	57.5	59.5	OVER	56	13	88	71	+2	+1	+1	FINAL
BGSU @ NEB	7:00	15,989	50.5	49.5	UNDER	99	32	38	11	0	-2	-1	FINAL
UCF @ PITT	3:30	14,464	51.5	55.5	UNDER	62	63	21	18	+4	-2	-1	FINAL
APP @ ECU	12:00	13,853	55.5	55.5	UNDER	80	82	34	33	-0.5	-1	-1	FINAL
WSU @ KSU	12:00	12,798	52.5	48.5	UNDER	58	60	56	26	-3.5	0	0	FINAL
CHA @ MISS	7:45	12,551	61.5	59.5	UNDER	84	86	22	18	-2	-1	-1	FINAL
USM @ AUB	7:45	12,455	52.5	56.5	UNDER	89	93	3	26	+4	0	0	FINAL
BUFF @ FIU	6:00	12,450	50.5	47.5	UNDER	72	69	89	41	-3	0	0	FINAL
TLSA @ SHSU	7:00	12,399	51.5	51.5	UNDER	89	91	9	19	-1	0	0	FINAL
UTSA @ TXST	3:30	12,318	63.5	65.5	UNDER	80	87	—	—	+1.5	-1	-1	FINAL
USA @ TULN	7:00	10,920	55.5	48.5	UNDER	73	73	83	35	-7	-1	-1	FINAL
GAST @ KENN	7:00	10,602	50.5	55.5	UNDER	84	85	81	24	+5	+1	+1	2.9 FINAL
RICE @ ND	3:30	9,789	52.5	54.5	OVER	57	38	89	86	+2	-1	-1	2.9 FINAL
GASO @ CLEM	7:30	9,693	57.5	54.5	UNDER	90	93	87	29	-3	-1	0	FINAL
DEL @ VAN	4:15	9,239	53.5	54.5	UNDER	78	78	—	—	0	0	0	FINAL
UMD @ UCONN	3:30	8,820	53.5	52.5	UNDER	53	59	—	—	-1	0	0	FINAL
USU @ WASH	3:30	8,199	54.5	55.5	UNDER	74	75	21	32	0	0	0	FINAL
UCD @ SMU	4:00	8,143	58.5	59.5	UNDER	76	88	5	21	+1	+1	+1	FINAL

Movement columns are the change in the total over each window. Teal = moved against the money (the signal); orange = moved with it. AN = Action Network consensus, DK = DraftKings. Percentages are for the side named in “Money on”.

How much to trust it

Most days produce nothing, and that is the screen working. Thin markets are dropped before they are screened, both money feeds have to agree, and the line has to have moved against that money. A light board clears none of that: one recent Friday had four games and produced no pick at all. A screen that always finds something is not a screen.
The edge is modest. The underlying move — reverse line movement — is a real but heavily degraded signal — books price it in now. This screen finds where a market is behaving oddly; it does not establish that the odd behaviour is wrong.
Splits are a snapshot, not a history. Percentages are read at generation time and will drift before kickoff.
Ticket shape can conflict. Where one feed shows money concentrated in few tickets and the other shows it spread across many, the sharp reading is weaker. The per-game cards show both so the disagreement stays visible.
Totals move spreads. A falling total mechanically compresses a spread, so part of a spread move can be a total move wearing a disguise.
Check the news. A line moving against the money is often just an injury the percentages have not caught up with yet.