College Football
Book Conviction SpreadsWhat Book Conviction measures — feeds, filters and scoring
A book that holds most of the money on one side should move its number toward that side. When it does the opposite — shading the price to make the popular side cheaper while already carrying that exposure — it is telling you its own number disagrees with its customers. That is what Book Conviction measures: how hard a book is leaning against its own money, priced in the margins that actually decide games.
- Action Network — consensus % of money and % of tickets, plus a timestamped history of both the number and the price, at seven books individually rather than only the consensus.
- DraftKings — DraftKings' own handle % and bet %, independent of the consensus above, which is what makes agreement between them worth anything.
- Pinnacle — the sharp reference price. It takes sharp action and moves on it instead of shading to balance a public book's exposure, so it answers a different question: not where the money is, but where the number should be.
Official picks — 2.5+
Maryland Terrapins at Ohio State Buckeyes
OSU holds 76% of the money (Action Network) and 90% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 2 pts the other way. The book is pricing OSU -31.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. 5 books moved it within half an hour of each other, 48.6h ago — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting.
North Dakota State Bison at UNLV Rebels
NDSU holds 62% of the money (Action Network) and 78% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing NDSU -2.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. The move touched 3 — a margin college football lands on more often than the numbers either side. 4 books moved it within half an hour of each other, 25.3h ago — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida Gators
FLA holds 76% of the money (Action Network) and 79% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 2 pts the other way. The book is pricing FLA -10.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. 3 books moved it within half an hour of each other, 19.1h ago — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting.
USC Trojans at Penn State Nittany Lions
PSU holds 73% of the money (Action Network) and 52% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 3 pts the other way. The book is pricing PSU +1.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. 4 books moved it within half an hour of each other, 7.6h ago — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Navy Midshipmen
TLSA holds 66% of the money (Action Network) and 57% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1.5 pts the other way. The book is pricing TLSA +3 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. The move touched 2 and 3 — margins college football lands on more often than the numbers either side. 5 books moved it within half an hour of each other, 4.1h ago — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting.
Arizona Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers
WVU holds 58% of the money (Action Network) and 82% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 0.5 pts the other way. The book is pricing WVU +3.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. The move touched 3 — a margin college football lands on more often than the numbers either side.
San Diego State Aztecs at Oregon State Beavers
ORST holds 71% of the money (Action Network) and 93% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing ORST -15.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. 5 books moved it within half an hour of each other, 1.1h ago — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting.
Rice Owls at East Carolina Pirates
RICE holds 93% of the money (Action Network) and 86% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 0.5 pts the other way. The book is pricing RICE +10 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. The move touched 10 — a margin college football lands on more often than the numbers either side.
Results — spreads
| Matchup | Market | Pick | CLV | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI @ WVU | spread | ARI -3.5 | +0 | 52-31 | win |
| SC @ FLA | spread | SC +10.5 | +1 | 38-19 | win |
| RICE @ ECU | spread | ECU -10 | +0 | 12-28 | win |
| TLSA @ NAVY | spread | NAVY -3 | +0 | 26-34 | win |
| UMD @ OSU | spread | UMD +31.5 | +2 | 16-45 | win |
| SDSU @ ORST | spread | SDSU +15.5 | +0 | 14-66 | loss |
| NDSU @ UNLV | spread | UNLV +2.5 | +0 | 7-13 | win |
| USC @ PSU | spread | USC -1.5 | +0.5 | 31-23 | win |
Graded against the number frozen before kickoff, not a later one. This slate: 7W - 1L (88%) · 3 of 8 beat the close, averaging +0.44 points.
By conviction
| Band | Conviction | Picks | Record | Beat the close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official | 2.5 + | 31 | 19W - 12L (61%) | 11/31 (+0.35) |
| Watch | 2.0 – 2.5 | 1 | 1W - 0L (100%) | 0/1 (+0) |
| Noted | under 2.0 | 2 | 1W - 1L (50%) | 0/2 (+0) |
6 earlier picks predate the score and sit in no band. They were not weak, they were unscored — and they are most of the graded history so far, which is why the bands below are still mostly empty.
Official picks are 2.5 and above. Everything else is still listed and still graded — closing line value is readable within hours, so if conviction means anything the higher bands should beat the close more often, and that is the test. Win/loss at this volume would take seasons to say the same thing.
Full board — spreads
| Matchup | ET | Bets | Open | Now | Money on | AN $% | AN T% | DK $% | DK T% | 7d | 3d | 1d | Key | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UGA @ BAMA | 7:30 | 89,003 | 2.5 | -2.5 | UGA | 56 | 55 | 55 | 68 | -5 | -1 | -1 | 2 | FINAL |
| IU @ NEB | 12:00 | 65,814 | 8.5 | 8.5 | IU | 52 | 57 | 56 | 62 | -0.5 | +1 | +1 | — | FINAL |
| TEX @ OU | 3:30 | 65,663 | 6.5 | 7.5 | OU | 52 | 52 | — | — | -0.5 | 0 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| USC @ PSU | 7:30 | 56,661 | -1.5 | 1.5 | PSU | 73 | 29 | 52 | 40 | +3 | +3 | +3 | — | 6.7 FINAL |
| UCLA @ ORE | 3:30 | 50,083 | -12.5 | -10.5 | UCLA | 69 | 63 | 56 | 65 | +2 | +1 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| TA&M @ MIZ | 12:00 | 49,366 | -1.5 | -4.5 | MIZ | 58 | 61 | 45 | 62 | -3 | -1 | -1 | — | FINAL |
| LSU @ UK | 7:00 | 43,555 | 10.5 | 9.5 | LSU | 65 | 61 | 60 | 67 | -0.5 | +1 | +1 | — | FINAL |
| SC @ FLA | 12:45 | 42,868 | -14.5 | -10.5 | FLA | 76 | 70 | 79 | 87 | +4 | +1.5 | +2 | — | 6.7 FINAL |
| UNC @ PITT | 12:00 | 40,803 | -4.5 | -3.5 | UNC | 54 | 45 | 49 | 60 | +1 | 0 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| MISS @ VAN | 3:30 | 40,172 | 10.5 | 9.5 | VAN | 52 | 53 | 57 | 23 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| ARI @ WVU | 12:00 | 35,038 | 3.5 | 3.5 | WVU | 58 | 53 | 82 | 80 | 0 | +0.5 | +0.5 | 3 | 5.1 FINAL |
| DUKE @ GT | 3:30 | 27,747 | 5.5 | 4.5 | GT | 72 | 77 | 55 | 72 | -1 | -2 | -2 | — | FINAL |
| HOU @ KSU | 3:30 | 27,424 | -2.5 | -2.5 | HOU | 63 | 72 | 51 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| TENN @ ARK | 4:15 | 26,642 | 14.5 | 13.5 | TENN | 83 | 74 | 77 | 83 | -1 | 0 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| UCF @ OKST | 12:00 | 25,955 | -9.5 | -10.5 | UCF | 62 | 77 | 36 | 30 | -1 | 0 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| NDSU @ UNLV | 7:00 | 22,138 | 3.5 | 2.5 | NDSU | 62 | 55 | 78 | 76 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 3 | 7.2 FINAL |
| WF @ NCST | 12:00 | 21,386 | 2.5 | 3.5 | WF | 63 | 60 | 52 | 54 | +1 | 0 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| JMU @ GASO | 7:30 | 19,412 | 10 | 7.5 | JMU | 82 | 83 | 46 | 64 | -2.5 | 0 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| SDSU @ ORST | 6:00 | 16,978 | -13.5 | -15.5 | ORST | 71 | 61 | 93 | 80 | -2 | -1 | +1 | — | 4.7 FINAL |
| AFA @ NIU | 7:30 | 16,776 | 12.5 | 7 | NIU | 62 | 35 | 42 | 20 | -5.5 | -0.5 | -0.5 | — | FINAL |
| UAB @ MEM | 7:00 | 16,595 | -14 | -15.5 | MEM | 75 | 70 | 92 | 79 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1 | — | FINAL |
| UMD @ OSU | 4:15 | 15,868 | -37.5 | -31.5 | OSU | 76 | 78 | 90 | 91 | +6 | +3 | +2 | — | 8.1 FINAL |
| VT @ CAL | 3:30 | 14,863 | 11.5 | 10 | CAL | 93 | 91 | 46 | 48 | -1.5 | 0 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| ILL @ MSU | 3:30 | 12,581 | 1.5 | 2.5 | ILL | 68 | 57 | 63 | 69 | +1 | 0 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| ODU @ APP | 1:00 | 12,520 | -5.5 | -8.5 | ODU | 85 | 88 | 52 | 36 | -3 | +1 | +1 | — | FINAL |
| UL @ LT | 7:30 | 12,253 | -2.5 | -3 | LT | 71 | 62 | — | — | -0.5 | 0 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| TULN @ ARMY | 12:00 | 12,207 | -6.5 | -5.5 | TULN | 57 | 52 | 41 | 31 | +1 | -2 | -2.5 | 3, 4 | FINAL |
| SYR @ UVA | 7:30 | 11,980 | -6.5 | -13.5 | UVA | 55 | 52 | 54 | 58 | -7 | -4 | -3.5 | — | FINAL |
| M-OH @ MASS | 2:00 | 11,672 | 2.5 | 6 | M-OH | 86 | 62 | 55 | 45 | +3.5 | +3.5 | +2.5 | — | FINAL |
| STAN @ ND | 3:30 | 11,435 | -35.5 | -40.5 | STAN | 86 | 86 | 23 | 26 | -5 | -2 | -1 | — | FINAL |
| TLSA @ NAVY | 3:30 | 10,799 | -4.5 | -3 | TLSA | 66 | 58 | 57 | 41 | +1.5 | -0.5 | -1.5 | 2, 3 | 6.0 FINAL |
| BALL @ NW | 12:30 | 9,471 | -34.5 | -35.5 | BALL | 82 | 87 | 73 | 30 | -1 | +1 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| RICE @ ECU | 1:00 | 9,390 | -9.5 | -10 | RICE | 93 | 92 | 86 | 39 | -0.5 | -0.5 | 0 | 10 | 2.9 FINAL |
| SAC @ BGSU | 12:00 | 8,552 | -6.5 | -9.5 | BGSU | 62 | 58 | 95 | 75 | -3 | -2 | -1 | — | FINAL |
| CC @ MRSH | 7:00 | 8,532 | -2.5 | -4.5 | MRSH | 65 | 65 | 51 | 51 | -2 | -1.5 | -0.5 | — | FINAL |
Movement columns are the change in the home spread over each window. Teal = moved against the money (the signal); orange = moved with it. AN = Action Network consensus, DK = DraftKings. Percentages are for the side named in “Money on”.
How much to trust it
- Most days produce nothing, and that is the screen working. Thin markets are dropped before they are screened, both money feeds have to agree, and the line has to have moved against that money. A light board clears none of that: one recent Friday had four games and produced no pick at all. A screen that always finds something is not a screen.
- The edge is modest. The underlying move — reverse line movement — is a real but heavily degraded signal — books price it in now. This screen finds where a market is behaving oddly; it does not establish that the odd behaviour is wrong.
- Splits are a snapshot, not a history. Percentages are read at generation time and will drift before kickoff.
- Ticket shape can conflict. Where one feed shows money concentrated in few tickets and the other shows it spread across many, the sharp reading is weaker. The per-game cards show both so the disagreement stays visible.
- Totals move spreads. A falling total mechanically compresses a spread, so part of a spread move can be a total move wearing a disguise.
- Check the news. A line moving against the money is often just an injury the percentages have not caught up with yet.