College Football
Book Conviction SpreadsWhat Book Conviction measures — feeds, filters and scoring
A book that holds most of the money on one side should move its number toward that side. When it does the opposite — shading the price to make the popular side cheaper while already carrying that exposure — it is telling you its own number disagrees with its customers. That is what Book Conviction measures: how hard a book is leaning against its own money, priced in the margins that actually decide games.
- Action Network — consensus % of money and % of tickets, plus a timestamped history of both the number and the price, at seven books individually rather than only the consensus.
- DraftKings — DraftKings' own handle % and bet %, independent of the consensus above, which is what makes agreement between them worth anything.
- Pinnacle — the sharp reference price. It takes sharp action and moves on it instead of shading to balance a public book's exposure, so it answers a different question: not where the money is, but where the number should be.
Official picks — 2.5+
Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs
MSST holds 58% of the money (Action Network) and 77% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 2 pts the other way. The book is pricing MSST -3.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. The move touched 4 and 6 — margins college football lands on more often than the numbers either side. 4 books moved it within half an hour of each other, 1h ago — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting.
Oklahoma Sooners at Georgia Bulldogs
UGA holds 65% of the money (Action Network) and 81% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing UGA -12.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. The move touched 14 — a margin college football lands on more often than the numbers either side. 4 books moved it within half an hour of each other, 42m ago — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting.
Colorado Buffaloes at Baylor Bears
BAY holds 62% of the money (Action Network) and 81% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing BAY -8.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. The move touched 10 — a margin college football lands on more often than the numbers either side. 5 books moved it within half an hour of each other, 54m ago — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting.
Ole Miss Rebels at Florida Gators
MISS holds 71% of the money (Action Network) and 67% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 0.5 pts the other way. The book is pricing MISS +4 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. The move touched 4 — a margin college football lands on more often than the numbers either side.
San Diego State Aztecs at Toledo Rockets
TOL holds 70% of the money (Action Network) and 84% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 0.5 pts the other way. The book is pricing TOL -2.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. The move touched 3 — a margin college football lands on more often than the numbers either side.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State Spartans
MSU holds 54% of the money (Action Network) and 78% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 0.5 pts the other way. The book is pricing MSU +6 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. The move touched 6 — a margin college football lands on more often than the numbers either side.
Results — spreads
| Matchup | Market | Pick | CLV | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLO @ BAY | spread | COLO +8.5 | +1 | 13-23 | loss |
| SDSU @ TOL | spread | SDSU +2.5 | +0 | 16-41 | loss |
| MISS @ FLA | spread | FLA -4 | +0.5 | 28-52 | win |
| OU @ UGA | spread | OU +12.5 | +1 | 13-41 | loss |
| NEB @ MSU | spread | NEB -6 | +0 | 31-13 | win |
| MIZ @ MSST | spread | MIZ +3.5 | +2 | 24-31 | loss |
Graded against the number frozen before kickoff, not a later one. This slate: 2W - 4L (33%) · 4 of 6 beat the close, averaging +0.75 points.
By conviction
| Band | Conviction | Picks | Record | Beat the close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official | 2.5 + | 15 | 8W - 7L (53%) | 6/15 (+0.37) |
| Watch | 2.0 – 2.5 | 1 | 1W - 0L (100%) | 0/1 (+0) |
| Noted | under 2.0 | 2 | 1W - 1L (50%) | 0/2 (+0) |
6 earlier picks predate the score and sit in no band. They were not weak, they were unscored — and they are most of the graded history so far, which is why the bands below are still mostly empty.
Official picks are 2.5 and above. Everything else is still listed and still graded — closing line value is readable within hours, so if conviction means anything the higher bands should beat the close more often, and that is the test. Win/loss at this volume would take seasons to say the same thing.
Full board — spreads
| Matchup | ET | Bets | Open | Now | Money on | AN $% | AN T% | DK $% | DK T% | 7d | 3d | 1d | Key | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MISS @ FLA | 3:30 | 96,198 | -1.5 | -4 | MISS | 71 | 78 | 67 | 75 | -2.5 | -0.5 | -0.5 | 4 | 4.8 FINAL |
| TEX @ TENN | 12:00 | 84,969 | 6.5 | 5.5 | TEX | 51 | 54 | 34 | 54 | +0.5 | +1 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| ORE @ USC | 7:30 | 71,550 | 5.5 | 3.5 | ORE | 69 | 56 | 67 | 48 | +5.5 | +0.5 | +0.5 | — | FINAL |
| OU @ UGA | 3:30 | 63,588 | -10 | -12.5 | UGA | 65 | 72 | 81 | 85 | 0 | +1.5 | +1 | 14 | 7.1 FINAL |
| IOWA @ MICH | 3:30 | 62,730 | -4.5 | -5.5 | IOWA | 68 | 62 | 81 | 83 | -1 | 0 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| TA&M @ LSU | 7:30 | 51,996 | -3 | -8.5 | TA&M | 55 | 54 | 39 | 39 | -3 | 0 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| WIS @ PSU | 5:00 | 42,772 | -11.5 | -10 | WIS | 61 | 42 | 53 | 26 | +1.5 | -0.5 | 0 | 10 | FINAL |
| WF @ LOU | 12:00 | 40,223 | -13.5 | -11.5 | WF | 63 | 48 | 55 | 24 | +2 | +1 | +2 | — | FINAL |
| MIZ @ MSST | 7:45 | 40,192 | -1.5 | -3.5 | MSST | 58 | 57 | 77 | 64 | -2 | +2.5 | +2 | 4, 6 | 8.5 FINAL |
| VAN @ AUB | 4:15 | 36,749 | -8.5 | -10 | AUB | 63 | 48 | 63 | 47 | -1.5 | -0.5 | -0.5 | — | FINAL |
| SC @ BAMA | 7:00 | 36,355 | -11.5 | -12.5 | BAMA | 72 | 67 | 75 | 81 | -1.5 | 0 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| UTAH @ ISU | 3:30 | 35,083 | 11.5 | 7.5 | ISU | 57 | 47 | 69 | 72 | -4 | -1 | -0.5 | — | FINAL |
| VT @ BC | 12:00 | 31,478 | 14.5 | 14.5 | VT | 55 | 54 | 74 | 51 | 0 | +0.5 | +0.5 | — | FINAL |
| OKST @ WVU | 7:00 | 29,802 | 2.5 | -1.5 | OKST | 60 | 50 | 21 | 28 | -4 | 0 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| UCLA @ UMD | 1:30 | 29,232 | 1.5 | 2.5 | UCLA | 61 | 65 | 23 | 67 | +1 | +1 | +1 | — | FINAL |
| ND @ PUR | 2:00 | 23,940 | 27.5 | 27.5 | PUR | 52 | 51 | 21 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| ILL @ OSU | 12:00 | 23,678 | -26.5 | -25.5 | ILL | 61 | 40 | 23 | 16 | +1.5 | +2 | +2 | — | FINAL |
| BOISE @ WMU | 3:30 | 20,179 | 7.5 | 8.5 | BOISE | 57 | 64 | 18 | 15 | +1 | +1.5 | +1 | — | FINAL |
| COLO @ BAY | 12:00 | 19,720 | -6.5 | -8.5 | BAY | 62 | 57 | 81 | 80 | -2 | +1.5 | +1 | 10 | 6.2 FINAL |
| TROY @ USU | 7:30 | 17,327 | -1.5 | -3 | USU | 62 | 41 | 91 | 70 | -1.5 | 0 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| JMU @ ODU | 6:00 | 16,544 | 3.5 | 7 | JMU | 76 | 83 | 93 | 88 | +3.5 | +1 | +0.5 | — | FINAL |
| SHSU @ TTU | 12:00 | 16,473 | -40.5 | -34.5 | SHSU | 62 | 51 | 33 | 23 | +6 | 0 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| KSU @ CIN | 7:00 | 16,418 | 6.5 | 6.5 | CIN | 63 | 57 | 80 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| HOU @ GASO | 4:00 | 15,751 | 20.5 | 17.5 | GASO | 54 | 38 | 55 | 22 | -3 | -1 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| NEB @ MSU | 5:00 | 15,706 | 5.5 | 6 | MSU | 54 | 54 | 78 | 87 | +0.5 | +0.5 | +0.5 | 6 | 2.5 FINAL |
| CMU @ MIA | 6:30 | 13,318 | -42.5 | -41.5 | MIA | 59 | 56 | 84 | 89 | +1 | 0 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| USA @ UK | 12:45 | 11,935 | -20.5 | -20.5 | UK | 70 | 71 | 80 | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| SDSU @ TOL | 12:00 | 11,723 | 2.5 | -2.5 | TOL | 70 | 66 | 84 | 70 | -5 | +0.5 | +0.5 | 3 | 3.5 FINAL |
| USF @ BGSU | 5:00 | 10,940 | 14.5 | 17.5 | BGSU | 54 | 50 | 17 | 30 | +3 | 0 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| TCU @ UCF | 3:30 | 10,258 | 1.5 | 3.5 | TCU | 57 | 60 | 15 | 67 | +2 | +0.5 | +0.5 | — | FINAL |
| APP @ NCST | 7:30 | 9,289 | -12.5 | -13 | APP | 74 | 65 | 35 | 33 | -0.5 | +1 | +1 | — | FINAL |
| HAW @ WYO | 3:00 | 9,077 | 5.5 | 2.5 | HAW | 56 | 56 | 60 | 49 | -3 | -0.5 | 0 | 3 | FINAL |
| KENN @ ARST | 7:00 | 8,537 | -5.5 | -6.5 | ARST | 51 | 52 | 93 | 65 | -1 | 0 | 0 | — | FINAL |
| CSU @ UTSA | 12:00 | 8,451 | -12.5 | -14.5 | CSU | 80 | 68 | 40 | 56 | -2 | -1 | -0.5 | 14 | unconfirmed FINAL |
| UCONN @ M-OH | 3:30 | 8,360 | -5.5 | -2.5 | UCONN | 65 | 56 | 25 | 71 | +3 | +1 | +1 | — | FINAL |
Movement columns are the change in the home spread over each window. Teal = moved against the money (the signal); orange = moved with it. AN = Action Network consensus, DK = DraftKings. Percentages are for the side named in “Money on”.
How much to trust it
- Most days produce nothing, and that is the screen working. Thin markets are dropped before they are screened, both money feeds have to agree, and the line has to have moved against that money. A light board clears none of that: one recent Friday had four games and produced no pick at all. A screen that always finds something is not a screen.
- The edge is modest. The underlying move — reverse line movement — is a real but heavily degraded signal — books price it in now. This screen finds where a market is behaving oddly; it does not establish that the odd behaviour is wrong.
- Splits are a snapshot, not a history. Percentages are read at generation time and will drift before kickoff.
- Ticket shape can conflict. Where one feed shows money concentrated in few tickets and the other shows it spread across many, the sharp reading is weaker. The per-game cards show both so the disagreement stays visible.
- Totals move spreads. A falling total mechanically compresses a spread, so part of a spread move can be a total move wearing a disguise.
- Check the news. A line moving against the money is often just an injury the percentages have not caught up with yet.