College Football

Book Conviction Spreads

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Saturday, September 19, 2026 · generated 8:00 PM ET · Download PDF

This Slate · 2.5+

1W - 3L (25%)

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Saturday, September 19, 2026

39 games screened

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Official Picks · 2.5+

5W - 3L (62%)

Beat the Close

2/8 (+0.12 pts)

Second money feed is incomplete — 18 of 39 games. DraftKings publishes its own handle and bets figures, and they are published for 18 games on this slate. A game with no DraftKings number cannot clear the two-feed agreement test, so it is screened out before it is scored, however hard its line moved against the money. An empty board below is a missing feed, not a quiet market. Nothing has been loosened to compensate: one feed is not a confirmed signal, and this screen would rather show nothing than manufacture a pick out of a feed that did not arrive.

Games screened

Official picks

Still open

Locked at kickoff

What Book Conviction measures — feeds, filters and scoring

A book that holds most of the money on one side should move its number toward that side. When it does the opposite — shading the price to make the popular side cheaper while already carrying that exposure — it is telling you its own number disagrees with its customers. That is what Book Conviction measures: how hard a book is leaning against its own money, priced in the margins that actually decide games.

Method. Three free feeds, none of them paid for and none of them interchangeable:

Action Network — consensus % of money and % of tickets, plus a timestamped history of both the number and the price, at seven books individually rather than only the consensus.
DraftKings — DraftKings' own handle % and bet %, independent of the consensus above, which is what makes agreement between them worth anything.
Pinnacle — the sharp reference price. It takes sharp action and moves on it instead of shading to balance a public book's exposure, so it answers a different question: not where the money is, but where the number should be.

What gets flagged. A game needs at least 8,000 tracked bets — on thin markets the two splits feeds disagree by a median of roughly 30 points of money share, so their percentages there cannot be trusted — and both feeds must agree on which side holds the money, with at least 60% of the money on it. At 51/49 a book holds no meaningful exposure either way: it is balanced and collecting vig from both sides, so moving the number “against the money” there is not a statement, it is noise. Then either the number moved against that money in the last 3 days, or the price did by at least half a point's worth: a book shades the vig before it moves the line, and a spread sitting still at −3 while the price runs −110 to −125 has moved. What scores it. The move is weighted by the key numbers it touched, because giving up 3 is not the same as drifting through 10. It is then scaled by how lopsided the money is, how much of it there is, whether the play is getting a better number than Pinnacle, and whether several books moved together within half an hour — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting. That produces the 0–10 Conviction score. 2.5 and above is an official pick; everything below is listed and graded but kept out of the headline record.

Official picks — 2.5+

Utah State Aggies at Utah Utes

Spread · kickoff 3:30 PM ET · 14,883 bets tracked

Final · locked

USU +26.5

UTAH holds 63% of the money (Action Network) and 94% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing UTAH -26.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money.

Open → now

-26.5 → -26.5

Money %

63 / 94

Ticket %

58 / 76

Move 3d / 1d

+1.5 / +1

Price 3d / 1d

+0.68 / +0.23 pp

Sources agree

Yes

Pinnacle

-26 (+0.5)

Sep 17 · -28Sep 18 · -27.5Sep 19 · -27Sep 19 · -27.5Sep 19 · -27Sep 19 · -26.5

Kicked off — frozen at the last pre-kickoff reading, 2026-09-19 19:00 UTC. This is the record of the pick.

Kent State Golden Flashes at Ohio State Buckeyes

Spread · kickoff 12:00 PM ET · 17,614 bets tracked

Final · locked

KENT +51.5

OSU holds 73% of the money (Action Network) and 97% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing OSU -51.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. 4 books moved it within half an hour of each other, 1.3h ago — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting.

Open → now

-52.5 → -51.5

Money %

73 / 97

Ticket %

58 / 83

Move 3d / 1d

+1 / +1

Sources agree

Yes

Pinnacle

-52 (-0.5)

Steam

4 books · 1.3h ago

Sep 13 · -52.5Sep 19 · -52Sep 19 · -51.5Sep 19 · -52.5Sep 19 · -52Sep 19 · -51.5

Kicked off — frozen at the last pre-kickoff reading, 2026-09-19 16:07 UTC. This is the record of the pick.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Wisconsin Badgers

Spread · kickoff 12:30 PM ET · 10,016 bets tracked

Final · locked

EMU +23.5

WIS holds 50% of the money (Action Network) and 98% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing WIS -23.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money. 3 books moved it within half an hour of each other, 71.8h ago — the market being hit in parallel rather than one book drifting.

Open → now

-24.5 → -23.5

Money %

50 / 98

Ticket %

41 / 74

Move 3d / 1d

+1 / 0

Sources agree

Yes

Pinnacle

-23.5 (+0)

Steam

3 books · 71.8h ago

Sep 14 · -24.5Sep 14 · -24Sep 15 · -24.5Sep 16 · -23.5Sep 16 · -24Sep 17 · -23.5

Kicked off — frozen at the last pre-kickoff reading, 2026-09-19 16:07 UTC. This is the record of the pick.

Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati Bearcats

Spread · kickoff 3:30 PM ET · 11,753 bets tracked

Final · locked

M-OH +14.5

CIN holds 93% of the money (Action Network) and 57% at DraftKings, yet the number moved 1 pt the other way. The book is pricing CIN -14.5 cheaper while already holding most of that side's money.

Open → now

-13.5 → -14.5

Money %

93 / 57

Ticket %

92 / 73

Move 3d / 1d

0 / +1

Price 3d / 1d

+0.46 / +0 pp

Sources agree

Yes

Pinnacle

-14.5 (+0)

Sep 17 · -15Sep 17 · -15.5Sep 17 · -16Sep 17 · -15.5Sep 19 · -15Sep 19 · -14.5

Kicked off — frozen at the last pre-kickoff reading, 2026-09-19 19:00 UTC. This is the record of the pick.

Results — spreads

Matchup	Market	Pick	CLV	Final	Result
KENT @ OSU	spread	KENT +51.5	+0	3-59	loss
EMU @ WIS	spread	EMU +23.5	+0	10-54	loss
M-OH @ CIN	spread	M-OH +14.5	+0.5	31-35	win
USU @ UTAH	spread	USU +26.5	+1	0-33	loss

Graded against the number frozen before kickoff, not a later one. This slate: 1W - 3L (25%) · 2 of 4 beat the close, averaging +0.38 points.

By conviction

Band	Conviction	Picks	Record	Beat the close
Official	2.5 +	8	5W - 3L (62%)	2/8 (+0.12)
Watch	2.0 – 2.5	1	1W - 0L (100%)	0/1 (+0)
Noted	under 2.0	2	1W - 1L (50%)	0/2 (+0)

6 earlier picks predate the score and sit in no band. They were not weak, they were unscored — and they are most of the graded history so far, which is why the bands below are still mostly empty.

Official picks are 2.5 and above. Everything else is still listed and still graded — closing line value is readable within hours, so if conviction means anything the higher bands should beat the close more often, and that is the test. Win/loss at this volume would take seasons to say the same thing.

CLV is closing line value: how far the number moved after the play fired, in points, from the side taken. Positive means the market came to the play and a reader acting on it got a better number than the market settled on. It is the more honest measure of this screen — win/loss on a handful of games says nothing either way, while consistently beating the close is what an edge actually looks like. Picks recorded before this was tracked show “—”.

Full board — spreads

Matchup	ET	Bets	Open	Now	Money on	AN $%	AN T%	DK $%	DK T%	7d	3d	1d	Key
LSU @ MISS	7:30	97,051	-2.5	3	LSU	54	52	—	—	+5.5	0	0	—	FINAL
SMU @ LOU	3:30	61,543	-1.5	-3	SMU	62	57	40	58	-1	-1.5	-1.5	2, 3	FINAL
FLA @ AUB	7:00	55,293	1.5	2.5	AUB	52	39	—	—	0	0	0	—	FINAL
UGA @ ARK	12:00	49,401	16.5	24.5	UGA	82	76	93	85	+7.5	0	0	—	FINAL
MSST @ SC	4:15	46,786	-7.5	-3.5	MSST	53	66	—	—	+4	+0.5	+0.5	—	FINAL
UNC @ CLEM	12:00	44,156	-9.5	-3	UNC	62	54	—	—	+5.5	+0.5	0	—	FINAL
FSU @ BAMA	3:30	40,500	-15.5	-18.5	FSU	57	60	9	19	-3	+1	+1	—	FINAL
USC @ RUT	3:30	32,468	24.5	21.5	RUT	51	53	19	17	-3	-2	0	—	FINAL
UK @ TA&M	3:30	29,600	-14.5	-16.5	TA&M	87	88	70	77	-2	0	0	—	FINAL
VT @ UMD	7:30	28,989	1.5	2.5	VT	68	67	—	—	+0.5	0	-0.5	3	unconfirmed FINAL
ASU @ KU	12:00	25,864	5.5	5.5	ASU	68	57	—	—	0	0	0	—	FINAL
UNT @ TXST	12:00	24,380	-2.5	-3	TXST	59	55	—	—	-0.5	0	0	—	FINAL
NCST @ VAN	12:45	21,795	-4.5	-3.5	NCST	58	40	51	71	+1	0	0	—	FINAL
UNM @ OU	7:30	20,381	-21.5	-21.5	UNM	52	43	—	—	0	+1	0	—	FINAL
WVU @ UVA	7:30	19,321	-8.5	-10.5	UVA	53	60	—	—	-2	0	0	—	FINAL
COLO @ NW	7:30	18,917	-5.5	-3.5	COLO	69	79	—	—	0	0	0	—	FINAL
CC @ DEL	11:30	18,594	-4.5	-5	DEL	61	64	40	44	-0.5	-0.5	+0.5	—	FINAL
STAN @ DUKE	4:00	18,377	-11.5	-9.5	DUKE	69	64	—	—	+2	0	+0.5	10	unconfirmed FINAL
KENT @ OSU	12:00	17,614	-52.5	-51.5	OSU	73	58	97	83	+1	+1	+1	—	3.2 FINAL
UTEP @ MICH	3:30	17,291	-35.5	-34.5	UTEP	53	63	14	24	+1	+0.5	+1	—	FINAL
BYU @ CSU	7:30	17,059	20.5	17.5	BYU	56	63	—	—	-3	0	0	—	FINAL
MSU @ ND	7:30	16,049	-29.5	-28.5	MSU	54	47	—	—	+1	+1	+1	—	FINAL
WMU @ RICE	7:00	15,560	10.5	8.5	WMU	82	80	—	—	-2	-1	-1	—	unconfirmed FINAL
TULN @ KSU	12:00	15,302	-20.5	-20.5	TULN	63	70	17	31	0	0	0	—	FINAL
LT @ BAY	4:00	15,211	-18.5	-20	LT	81	80	—	—	-1.5	-0.5	0	—	unconfirmed FINAL
USU @ UTAH	3:30	14,883	-26.5	-26.5	UTAH	63	58	94	76	0	+1.5	+1	—	4.7 FINAL
WKU @ IU	4:00	14,242	-44.5	-44.5	IU	54	38	—	—	0	0	0	—	FINAL
OHIO @ USA	7:00	12,970	-3.5	-7	USA	59	51	—	—	-3.5	0	-0.5	—	FINAL
BGSU @ ISU	12:00	11,985	-23.5	-23	BGSU	62	54	25	21	+0.5	+0.5	+0.5	—	FINAL
M-OH @ CIN	3:30	11,753	-13.5	-14.5	CIN	93	92	57	73	-1	0	+1	—	3.0 FINAL
FIU @ FAU	6:00	10,385	-9.5	-4.5	FAU	76	78	45	52	+5	+2	+2	6	unconfirmed FINAL
EMU @ WIS	12:30	10,016	-24.5	-23.5	WIS	50	41	98	74	+1	+1	0	—	3.0 FINAL
GAST @ UCF	7:00	9,910	-19.5	-17.5	UCF	54	56	—	—	+2	0	0	—	FINAL
AKR @ MINN	12:00	9,229	-28.5	-22.5	AKR	67	69	30	26	+6	+1	+1	—	FINAL
TEM @ TOL	3:00	9,178	-2.5	-5	TOL	84	82	37	67	-2.5	+1	+1	6	unconfirmed FINAL
TROY @ MIZ	7:00	9,158	-27.5	-26.5	TROY	68	75	—	—	+1	0	+1	—	FINAL
WYO @ CMU	1:00	8,542	-1.5	1.5	WYO	82	63	71	54	+3	+3	0	—	FINAL
KENN @ TENN	7:45	8,390	-35.5	-35.5	TENN	51	47	—	—	0	0	0	—	FINAL
BUFF @ PSU	12:00	8,007	-39.5	-39.5	PSU	55	33	—	—	0	+1	+1	—	FINAL

Movement columns are the change in the home spread over each window. Teal = moved against the money (the signal); orange = moved with it. AN = Action Network consensus, DK = DraftKings. Percentages are for the side named in “Money on”.

How much to trust it

Most days produce nothing, and that is the screen working. Thin markets are dropped before they are screened, both money feeds have to agree, and the line has to have moved against that money. A light board clears none of that: one recent Friday had four games and produced no pick at all. A screen that always finds something is not a screen.
The edge is modest. The underlying move — reverse line movement — is a real but heavily degraded signal — books price it in now. This screen finds where a market is behaving oddly; it does not establish that the odd behaviour is wrong.
Splits are a snapshot, not a history. Percentages are read at generation time and will drift before kickoff.
Ticket shape can conflict. Where one feed shows money concentrated in few tickets and the other shows it spread across many, the sharp reading is weaker. The per-game cards show both so the disagreement stays visible.
Totals move spreads. A falling total mechanically compresses a spread, so part of a spread move can be a total move wearing a disguise.
Check the news. A line moving against the money is often just an injury the percentages have not caught up with yet.